Цифровая экспансия: китайские бренды в российском диджитале

Краткое содержание статьи

• Усиление регулирования индустрии потребительских технологий в Китае серьезно повлияло на доходы компаний, что имело широкомасштабные последствия.
• Но цифровизация промышленности, поддерживаемая государственной политикой, дает возможность для роста, что может помочь всей цифровой экономике расти в среднем на 16% в год в течение следующего десятилетия.
• В этой заметке мы стремимся представить экономическое влияние интернет-политики в Китае сверху вниз.

Айрис Панг, главный экономист Большого Китая

Усиление регулирования индустрии потребительских технологий в Китае серьезно повлияло на доходы компаний, что имело широкомасштабные последствия. Но цифровизация промышленности, поддерживаемая государственной политикой, дает возможность для роста, что может помочь всей цифровой экономике расти в среднем на 16% в год в течение следующего десятилетия.

How China Develops Its Digital Economy

China recognizes the importance of digital economy in driving GDP growth. In acknowledgment of this, the government has implemented initiatives aimed at accelerating the digital economy’s expansion. One of the latest of these initiatives, the 14th Five-Year Plan on Digital Economy Development, encompasses well-thought-out objectives in crucial areas.

Each of the goals in China’s 14 5th year plan is carefully crafted to reinforce China’s position as a global economic leader. These vital areas encompass blockchain, 6G internet, sensors, integrated circuits, and semiconductor technology, all playing a paramount role in shaping digital infrastructure and ensuring China’s continued rise as one of the world’s largest digital economies.

What are those trends that you see are losing momentum and which ones are the ones that are really gaining momentum?

Jeffrey Towson: The ones that were easier to predict where urbanization, manufacturing, capital, just a lot of money because that’s just been steadily growing. I mean it’s literally a linear line to just drive from 1980 to today and it’s just a straight line.

The ones that were a little bit more unpredictable were rising Chinese consumers, which they were not really an economic factor 10 years ago. People didn’t talk about Chinese consumers 10 years ago. They weren’t buying much even though they had income and savings. Well, that’s changed dramatically in the last five to 10 years.

Now, they’re the world’s largest market for auto, for gaming, offline gaming, cinema, movies. I mean just one industry after the next, they’ve become the largest marketplace or in the top two.

Most of China, the digital consumer stories are really about consumers. Most of the digital China story is mostly about consumers. That’s where things are really happening fast.

Alibaba, Tencent, social media, all that. That’s a lot of China consumers who turn out are almost entirely digital creatures.

You can’t talk about Chinese consumers without talking digital anymore. Everything happens on a smartphone. That’s probably the most unpredictable one, but it’s moving quick.

Gennaro Cuofano: You said at the beginning, and I think this is very important to stress out because still for many people, China is a huge block, but as you said it is a very complex country, which is a made up of many clusters also as you highlight in the book.

What’s the “coolest” thing right now in the digital marketing space in China?

Jeffrey Towson: Probably the coolest thing I think is how content is driving e-commerce that we had these KOLs, these online influencers come up, and they’re basically content creators.

They create videos, traveling through Paris, looking for handbags and then they use that to sell their own stuff, buy my handbag. But they’re also contracting with major brands to promote their stuff.

It’s turning out that content is a very powerful and authentic way to drive e-commerce and it’s got a depth of content and thinking and an authenticity that is really quite powerful. That’s something that we see in China more than anywhere else. I think that’s pretty interesting.

Then the other stuff is short-form video, which is TikTok go in. You know, that was a China thing, but that’s taking off in a lot of countries right now. Live streaming, micro-gifting.

There’s a lot of China’s stuff that’s different than the West. Podcasting is actually very popular in China and it’s easier to monetize in China than it is in say the US where there’s not really any ad market for podcasts.

So there’s a couple of things where China is related. Usually, all of these things tie to consumer behavior because that’s where things are really innovative.

Micro-gifting is very popular. Online influencers, E-sports is huge in China and people play online and people just shower them with little gifts of money and things.

So yeah, there’s a lot of interesting models bubbling around, and it’s not just China, it’s really Asia. A lot of interesting stuff happening.

Regulations

The Chinese government has adopted a relatively hands off approach when it comes to regulating the digital economy, but does prioritize a China first approach. Recognizing the critical role of the digital economy in GDP growth and China’s economic dominance, they have allowed the digital economy to flourish without heavy intervention. The regulations that are in place primarily aim to ensure sustainable growth, while preventing economic bubbles or crashes.

This regulatory framework has also provided a conducive environment for the growth of China’s domestic digital economy. For instance, when Alipay was first launched, global expectations were that it would swiftly integrate with PayPal. However, Chinese regulation did not permit an immediate entry for PayPal into China. As a result, Chinese payment processors had the opportunity to develop independently. By the time PayPal did enter China, it faced competition rather than being the dominant leader in a competitive marketplace.

This regulatory approach is consistent with technology regulation in China, which prioritizes the development of China’s own digital tools and industries.

Резюме

В этой заметке установлено, что интенсивное регулирование интернет-сектора в Китае имеет более серьезные последствия, чем просто наложенные до сих пор штрафы и санкции.

Большинство нормативных актов затрагивают подсекторы цифровой потребительской экономики. Потенциальная потеря стоимости может составить около 21 трлн юаней в период с 2021 по 2030 год, что намного больше, чем штрафы и пени в размере 303,5 млрд юаней в 2020–2022 годах. Эта потеря дохода может быть отражена в меньшем количестве инноваций и креативных бизнес-идей.

В то же время цифровая индустриальная экономика может расти очень быстро, в основном за счет политической поддержки. На XX съезде партии была поставлена ​​задача создания передовых технологий китайскими компаниями. Это самоподдерживающееся намерение может увеличить стоимость цифровой промышленной экономики до 80 трлн юаней к 2030 году с 7,1 трлн юаней в 2019 году.

Для цифровой экономики основной проблемой остается неопределенность новых и более жестких правил со стороны правительства Китая как в подсекторах потребительской, так и в промышленной цифровой экономике. Также могут быть проблемы из-за глобальных правил в этом секторе.

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What are the six mega-trends that shaped and are shaping China’s economy?

Jeffrey Towson: Me and my co-author Jonathan Woetzel of McKinsey highlighted those six mega-trends. China is confusing and there’s a lot going on. It’s a big place. It’s very complicated. What we did is we pointed, look,

The trends we started to look at were things that were driving the revenue or the cost structures of companies. Out of that, we identified six:

Number one is urbanization. Just the fact that when China reopened to the world in 1980, about 80% of the population was in the farms and 20% in the city, which is usually pretty much the inverse of most developed countries.

So there’s just been a steady movement of people into cities, which is still happening today, that creates a lot of economic drive.

• We also looked at things like manufacturing scale,
• A lot of money, capital,
• Rising Chinese consumers, which is something that’s really become important in the last five to 10 years.
• Digital China (the Internet)
• And then what we call Brainpower Behemoth, which is just, you know, there are more and more people with advanced degrees. China’s not like it used to be in 1990. I mean it’s engineers and PhDs and artists and a lot of advanced skills now.

So we looked at those six trends and that’s held up pretty well over time, this little model we used. Most of the major companies you see are writing one or two of those trends. So so far, it’s held up. It’s been about four to five years, so we’ll see.

But I think it’s pretty solid. Most of those things are going on for at least another decade, if not longer. And then we’ll see.

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Did this digital megatrend change the way China looks like in terms of society, consumers?

Jeffrey Towson: I mean everyone knows there’s a lot of them. That’s not a big surprise. Everybody knows that they’re rising in their wealth. I think the part that gets underappreciated is how complicated they are.

I mean you can look at 30 million Chinese consumers live in caves. You can find Chinese consumers in the far West where you’ve got several hundred million of them that looked like a different country.

You go to downtown Beijing, you get more billionaires in Beijing than New York City.

So there’s a huge fragmentation and complexity to them and it’s just getting more so because one, there’s a lot of them.

So when you get a lot of anything, you’re going to get a lot of complexity, and two, you still get this big spread between very, very developed market behavior like Beijing and Shanghai and behavior that’s out in the fields and in the mountains.

So it’s just this hugely complicated subject and the only way you can really understand Chinese consumers at this point is you have to go small. You have to study micro populations, Chinese moms, sports enthusiasts, inland consumers, dads. You just have to break it up that way and you find out people are very, very different.

Gennaro Cuofano: In the book, actually you also highlight one point which I found very interesting and it’s how actually people consume content. The consumption of the internet it’s really more intense for Chinese especially young people compared to Westerners.

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ЗАКОНОМЕРНОСТЕЙ РАЗВИТИЯ РЫНКА ТРУДА КИТАЯ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЦИФРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ : доклад, тезисы доклада

Перевод названия: STUDY OF THE PATTERNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE CHINESE LABOR MARKET IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

Тип публикации: доклад, тезисы доклада, статья из сборника материалов конференций

Конференция: Экономика и Индустрия 5.0 в условиях новой реальности (ИНПРОМ-2022); Санкт-Петербург; Санкт-Петербург

Год издания: 2022

Идентификатор DOI: 10.18720/IEP/2022.1/213

Ключевые слова: labor market, digitalization, digital economy, employment, labor productivity, unemployment, рынок труда, цифровизация, цифровая экономика, занятость, производительность труда, безработица

Аннотация: Цифровые технологии способствуют повышению производительности и эффективности управления компаниями, изменяют потребности экономики и бизнеса, что вызывает серию цепных реакций. В статье исследуются закономерности развития рынков труда Китая в условиях цифровизации экономики, анализируются изменения в занятости и производительности. Проведен анализ трех видов закономерностей, характерных для развития рынков труда в условиях цифровой экономики: возникновение новых рабочих мест, поляризация рынков труда, запаздывание развития компетенций трудовых ресурсов. Выделены риски развития рынков труда Китая. Обоснована необходимость управления сбалансированностью рынков труда для сокращения разрывов между потребностями бизнеса и компетенциями трудовых ресурсов. Сформированы рекомендации по принятию стратегических решений для сокращения разрывов на рынках труда.
Digital technologies increase the productivity and efficiency of company management, change the needs of the economy and business, which causes a series of chain reactions. The article examines the patterns of development of China’s labor markets in the context of the digitalization of the economy, analyzes changes in employment and productivity. An analysis was made of three types of patterns that are characteristic of the development of labor markets in a digital economy: the emergence of new jobs, the polarization of labor markets, and the delay in the development of la bor force competencies. The risks of the development of China’s labor markets are highlighted. The necessity of managing the balance of labor markets in order to reduce the gaps between the needs of business and the competencies of labor resources is substantiated. Recommendations for making strategic decisions to reduce gaps in labor markets are formed.

Ссылки на полный текст

Издание

Журнал: Экономика и Индустрия 5.0 в условиях новой реальности (ИНПРОМ-2022)

Номера страниц: 754-758

Место издания: Санкт-Петербург

Издатель: ПОЛИТЕХ-ПРЕСС

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Интенсивное регулирование началось с антимонопольного

Регулирование началось с реализации антимонопольного законодательства. Правительство заявило, что технологические компании злоупотребляли монопольной властью, массово собирая персональные данные и злоупотребляя доступом к ним, а также безрассудно развивая финтех.

На этом фоне правительство выпустило пакет новых законов и нормативных актов, направленных на различные аспекты потребительской цифровой экономики. Расследование в отношении Alibaba, проведенное Государственным управлением по регулированию рынка (SAMR), привело к наложению на компанию штрафов в 2022 году.

What kind of content are Chinese users consuming the most?

Jeffrey Towson: Especially short video. One of the reasons TikTok took off so quickly was these are 15-second videos. One, it turns out they’re a lot more addictive when you’re hitting a new video every 15 seconds.

The other thing is it engaged more of the China network that… Let’s say there are 500 million people who have smartphones and good data plans and can watch Youku and whatever.

But short video anyone could do.

So all one billion people who have WeChat can watch the short video even if you’re just a farmer in a field and you have a very basic cell phone with a very basic data plan because you don’t have a lot of money, you can watch a short video because they don’t take much memory.

You can also film your own short videos just with your phone.

So it engaged a much bigger percentage of the network of consumers, not just to consume but also to produce content. That’s one of the reasons that is doing so well in lots of poor countries because anyone can do short video no matter how skimpy your data plan is or how basic your cell phone is.

You can do WeChat. You can do a short video and a couple of other things even if you have a little bitty data plan. That’s one of the reasons I think that’s powerful. Also, it turns out it’s super addictive.

It also turns out it’s really good for digital advertising because of every, let’s say fourth or fifth video is a full-screen 15-second video advertisement, which is a heck of a lot better than a banner ad after a search engine inquiry.

It turns out it’s really good for video advertisements when you get a 15 second Hyundai ad that covers your whole screen. That’s a lot better than a banner headline. It really works on a lot of dimensions. It’s pretty clever as a business.

How does voice search look like in China?

Jeffrey Towson: The big question is natural language processing. Can a computer hear you and understand it, and it turns out that’s actually pretty difficult. Computer is much more advanced commercialized, but Chinese companies especially like Baidu, which is the big search engine, they’ve been on this for a long time.

It has a lot to do with the fact that it’s actually pretty hard to type in Chinese on a cellphone. You can type on a smartphone or a PC in English quite easily but drawing the Chinese characters is actually kind of a pain. So people switched over to voice or started thinking about it much earlier.

So the accuracy levels, the numbers you read about it, it’s usually Baidu that they have a high accuracy level for Chinese inputted voice higher than English and that’s because it’s hard to type and draw the characters. That’s where it’s going. I’m not totally sure Alibaba is all over that situation with their team on Genie.

Xiaomi has an AI assistant that’s moving pretty quick, so does Baidu. So I mean these are the equivalents of Alexa and for the West, but we’re seeing three or four different companies in China doing this. Yeah, I think it’s going to move pretty quick but yeah, the recognition aspect is problematic. It actually turns out it’s pretty difficult. So we’ll see.

Can it get past basic understanding or is it going to be stuck at this sort of rudimentary understanding for a long time, which could be the case. I don’t know. We’ll see how it plays out, but it’s pretty tough. The AI assistants are a big deal right now in China.

How is the Internet affecting modern China?

Jeffrey Towson: Everyone knew there was going to be a lot of people with smartphones in China. That was pretty predictable. We’re seeing the same thing in India in the news and places like that. I think what surprised people was how enthusiastic they are. They just adopt things faster than in other countries.

Mobile apps take off like crazy and they spend more time online than other consumers in other countries. They contribute more. They post more. They add content more. So it just turns out they are some of the world’s most enthusiastic netizens are Chinese. That wasn’t necessarily predictable but it’s true.

The other thing to keep in mind is there’s a difference between regular consumers who go down to the supermarket and buy apples and online consumers because the online consumers effectively operate as a network. It’s not just one person. That person is sharing what another person is sharing. They’re interconnected.

If you have 300 million Americans or 350 million Americans, there’s a certain number of connections you’d get between them. When you have a billion Chinese consumers, it’s actually exponentially larger.

That part is showing itself. When you see a new app take off in China, it goes from nothing to 100 million users in two months, three months. We don’t see that anywhere else that I’ve seen.

Gennaro Cuofano: One interesting thing is also that in China there is the phenomenon of super apps, which is something that we didn’t yet see in the West. In short, it seems that China is now at the stage where it’s creating its own innovations.

For anyone trying to expand and build a digital business in China, what suggestions do you have?

Jeffrey Towson: Most of the cool digital stuff in China is consumer-focused. The B2B side, the enterprise side is actually pretty slow and it’s not as advanced as the US or the West. So the consumer side is where China is really the frontier of a lot of things.

Within that, probably the most important thing is to understand digital marketing and social media because it’s very aggressive in China. If you’re not doing that, you can’t sell anything to anyone.

So what you see is a lot of big fortune 500 companies studying their teams in China in terms of digital marketing and then taking those lessons and applying them in the rest of the world.

That’s the area I’d start focusing on. Things are moving really fast and probably more advanced than just about anywhere you’ll find mostly. So digital marketing, social media, stuff like that.

«Цифровая трансформация Китая: опыт преобразования инфраструктуры национальной экономики»

ТЕОРИЯ: ЦИФРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА — НОВАЯ ДВИЖУЩАЯ СИЛА

Содержание и особенности цифровой экономики

• Что такое цифровая экономика
• История развития цифровой экономики
• Особенности цифровой экономика
• Информационные технологии — мощнейший двигатель цифровой экономики

Цифровая экономика — новая движущая сила развития

• Цифровая экономика — главный двигатель экономического роста
• Цифровая экономика улучшает экономическое развитие
• Цифровая экономика — основа структурных преобразований на стороне предложения
• Рост занятости и благосостояния населения

Ускорение формирования цифровой инфраструктуры

Совершенствование информационной инфраструктуры
Важность цифровизации традиционной инфраструктуры
Цифровизация автодорожной инфраструктуры
Цифровизация инфраструктуры водного транспорта
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• Точки приложения силы в повышении цифровой грамотности
• Реформы в образовании для повышения цифровой грамотности

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• 10 лет облачных вычислений: время получать дивиденды
• 60 лет искусственному интеллекту: золотая фаза развития
• Блокчейн: формирование доверия, мировая циркуляция стоимости
• Применение в традиционных отраслях

ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТЬ: ВЫСВОБОЖДЕНИЕ ЦИФРОВЫХ ДИВИДЕНДОВ, ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИЯ И МОДЕРНИЗАЦИЯ

Цифровизация обрабатывающей промышленности: ускорение

• Обрабатывающая промышленность — арена цифровой экономики
• Интернет и цифровизация обрабатывающей промышленности
• Вектор развития задают гиганты глобальной промышленности
• Успешные примеры реализации концепции «Интернет + производство» в Китае
• Цифровизация обрабатывающей промышленности Китая
• Цифровизация обрабатывающей промышленности за рубежом

Цифровизация финансовом сектора

• Экосистема цифровых финансов
• Цифровые технологии в сфере финансов
• Инновационная модель регулирования цифровых финансов

ПОЛИТИКА: РАЗВИТИЕ ЦИФРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ — МЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ТЕНДЕНЦИЯ

Развитие цифровой экономики — в центре внимания всего мира

• Международные организации, стимулирующие развитие цифровой экономики
• Все страны мира выступают за развитие цифровой экономики

Стратегия США в области цифровой экономики

• Начало развития цифровой экономики по всему миру
• Совершенствование информационной инфраструктуры, сокращение цифрового разрыва
• Создание цифрового правительства и открытые данные
• Обеспечение сетевой безопасности

Цифровая экономика в Великобритании

• Четыре главные стратегии цифровой экономики
• Развитие цифровой экономики в Великобритании
• Правовая защита и обеспечение безопасности в цифровой экономике
• Цифровая экономика Великобритании: проблемы и задачи

РЕКОМЕНДАЦИИ: КАК РЕАГИРОВАТЬ НА РЕВОЛЮЦИЮ В ЦИФРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ

Цифровизация предприятий

• Предпосылки для цифровизации предприятий
• Цифровые преобразования предприятия
• Новые проблемы цифровизации предприятий

Цифровизация правительства

• Пути цифровизации правительства
• Цифровизация правительства в Китае

Справочная литература

Планета Форекс: торговля валютой в эпоху цифровых технологий — Абэ Кофнас< Назад		Вперед >Экономика железнодорожного транспорта — Белов И.В.

What tech companies are you following right now?

Jeffrey Towson: The big five or six. The Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, Baidu, Didi, Meituan. Those are the big giants by market cap. I also look at the telco players a bit. So Huawei, ZTE, China Mobile, China Unicom.

I focus mostly on software on the digital side. I mean software and data. But the hardware world is becoming more software’ish. You know, as networks become smart, as drones become smart, as refrigerators become smart, that really means adding software.

So more and more I’m looking at those more equipment type companies as they move towards software. Obviously, Huawei is in the news a lot this year. And then the AI companies that are just roaring up right now.

Internet Accessibility

Internet is highly accessible to the average Chinese citizen. Not only is the Internet available even in remote areas of the country, but it is also incredibly affordable. The average Internet package in China costs approximately $7 per month, equating to just about 1% of the average Chinese monthly income.

In contrast, in the US, the average monthly Internet package costs $90 per month, or about 2% of the average American monthly income. This translates to Internet being twice as affordable in China when considering currency differences and the cost of living.

World’s Largest Market of Internet Users

While the US may have the highest nationwide Internet penetration in terms of percentages, China boasts the largest population with internet access in absolute numbers. In terms of e-commerce and digital consumption, China holds clear market advantages.

Additionally, the average Chinese citizen exhibits a considerably high willingness to adopt new technologies and utilize them for shopping and other digital activities. This inclination significantly contributes to China’s success in cultivating its digital economy.

Mobile-first Internet Usage

China leads globally in the development of mobile-first internet tools. Unlike conventional websites primarily designed for desktop use, with mobile optimization as an afterthought, Chinese developers prioritize mobile usage by aligning with the preferences of Chinese consumers.

Notable apps like TikTok and Pinduoduo prioritize the mobile user experience. This, in conjunction with China’s seamless app-based payment systems, has made it exceedingly convenient for Chinese consumers to conduct the majority of their shopping using their mobile devices.

Размер промышленности в Китае

Эта отрасль является источником важных данных, и искусственный интеллект был разработан для сбора, анализа и применения этих данных

На данный момент основное внимание уделяется цифровой деятельности на уровне потребителей и бизнеса. Цифровизация промышленной экономики все еще находится на ранней стадии

Согласно официальному документу, опубликованному Китайской академией информационных и коммуникационных технологий (CAICT), в 2021 году общая цифровая экономика в Китае оценивалась в 45,5 трлн юаней, занимая второе место после США. Отношение отрасли к ВВП удвоилось в 2021 году за 10 лет до почти 40%.

How did the Internet evolve in China compared to the US?

Jeffrey Towson: Most people in say the United States, they got on the internet by PC. You sit at home, you have your laptop, you have your desktop, they discovered Gmail. Then a couple of years later they discovered YouTube and then they slowly adapted to various tools over time.

There were some users before that was very small and they got all these tools at once. They went from nothing to I’ve got a smartphone, I can do messaging, I can do online video, I can do online gaming.

So they kind of jumped in the deep end of the pool and they only know the internet on smartphones.

The difference between a smartphone and a PC is one, you work on at home or your office and then you leave but the other one, you carry with you all day long. So they carry these around all day. They message, they take photos, they watch videos, all of that.

Then from there, they added payment, which was Alipay and WeChat Wallet. Once you had messaging and WeChat or mobile payments set up, that enabled E-commerce to happen on your phone anywhere you happen to be during your day.

That was the basis of the super app. It turns out people just live on their smartphones. It becomes the operating system for your life.

They didn’t adopt mobile payments because they were using credit cards which works fine, not awesome, but they were functional, and then E-commerce was something you did on your PC, not necessarily on Amazon, on your smartphone.

So we didn’t really see the super app emerge in the US at all although is trying it right now. We saw it in China and then we started to see it in Southeast Asia. Grab and Gojek are working on this. People are trying to build it in India in a lot of towns right now, but it emerged out of China first, and it’s not clear to me it’s going to emerge out of the US at all.

Facebook is basically copying WeChat right now. They’re consolidating their messengers, which is WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook Messenger first, and then they’re going to try and add mobile payment, which is Calibra, and then they’re going to try and add E-commerce. They’re basically trying to copy WeChat, but I doubt it will work.

Gennaro Cuofano: You also mentioned the importance of word of mouth as a way of consuming things. So Chinese, as you say, are very, in general, skeptical (from official sources). So this is interesting because it helps us better understand how Chinese people think.